Before I write this article, please understand, I am not a doctor. I am not a scientist. I am not a politician. I am simply a guy that writes articles about bowling. This is an opinion piece based on what I'm seeing.
We all know what's going on in the world. COVID-19 has changed the way we live, the way we think, the way we walk, the way we interact. It's changed everything about our way of life. For now. And I stress for now. You see, I am not a doomsday advocate. I don't think this will change the way we live. I think the country will open back up, albeit slowly. I think our way of life, our previous way of life, will return. I think public sporting events will eventually return. I think social distancing practices will eventually be lifted. But the question I really want answered is . . . when will bowling return?
We all go on Facebook. We all see opinion after opinion of people thinking winter leagues won't get started on time in September. We all see people saying they're not even sure if 2021 is a viable option. Personally, I think that's hogwash.
I'm not sure if you have heard, but there's a scientist/teacher/ inventor/ a whole bunch of other stuff, that has a group on Facebook called Dr. Frank Models (https://www.facebook.com/groups/158015618707622/). His name is Dr. Douglas G. Frank and he has been putting together graphs since the beginning of this pandemic outlining and aggregating COVID-19 data state-by-state to see where each state is trending. The reason why I trust his data is because . . . well . . . he's been DAMN accurate with almost all of his projections. He basically projects the trend of the pandemic state-by-state based on daily number of reported cases and deaths. And as you can see below, based on his projection, he's expecting the reported number of cases in NY to basically disappear in the beginning of May. And he's also expecting the curve for total number of deaths to flatten around the same time. You see, for the last few days, NY has been trending down in reported new cases and reported deaths, and based on his model and the expert models, the curve is expected to decline sharply in the upcoming weeks.
So why do I think June 15th is a realistic date for bowling centers to reopen? President Trump has set guidelines for each state to reopen. Now, we all know this is a gubernatorial decision, not a presidential one, and we all know that Governor Cuomo has extended the "pause" until May 15th. However, based on what I'm reading, the governor of Florida has already decided to reopen his state on a Level I basis (and Texas as well), meaning groups of 10 or less are now permitted to convene in those states. If the trend continues, there's no reason to think that by May 15th, they can't be at Level II, which is groups of 50.
But Florida is not New York. New York has had a ton of reported cases, more than any other country in the world. However, if the trend continues, why can't NY (and other Northeastern states) reopen on May 15th at a Level I basis? And if we're able to open on a Level I basis, there's no reason to think we can't be at Level II on June 15th. So if we are able to get to Level II by June 15th (gatherings of 50), how can bowling alleys reopen with that type of limit?
Simple - end winter leagues now! Pay off first half winners. Refund those who have paid until the end of the year. Prorate the second half. Start with a clean slate. Then, when June 15th rolls around, you'll be ready to re-open with everything paid. But that doesn't answer the question - how can bowling centers open and limit the number of people in the center to 50?
Most summer leagues are trios leagues. Start summer leagues on June 15th (assuming we're at Level II by then) and maximum your league at say 12-14 teams of 3, which would be 36-42 people. With staff, you'd be under 50. Have an employee at the door to the bowling center. Do not allow anyone in the center until the previous league has cleared out. And the best part about this is, June 15th is the beginning of summer. By the time September rolls around, it's feasible to be at Level IV, which allows for gatherings of 500.
Now again, this is probably a best case scenario. But even if Cuomo extends the pause to June 15th, we could be at Level I on June 15th and Level II on July 15th and start an abbreviated summer league schedule then. Why can't this be done? I don't see why not.
Listen, we always run the risk of the outbreak returning. However, we also must accept that the bowling industry (and many other industries in general) cannot survive if the powers that be decide to prolong this until September or later. Obviously our collective health is of the utmost importance, however we can't just ignore our economy either. Forcing these businesses to stay closed until September or later will be financial suicide, they simply won't have the available funds to survive. And trust me, the powers that be understand how important our economy is!
Please understand, I am not saying you should run outside naked tomorrow and start high-fiving everyone while singing Kumbaya. What I am saying is that it isn't that unrealistic to think that by June 15th bowling alleys could reopen. Is it possible? Yes. Is it probable? Who knows. Only time will tell. But let's at least try to remain optimistic rather than pessimistic. And maybe, just maybe, our prayers will be answered and we can back to the sport that we all love sooner rather than later.
Update: In addition to the data above, the same scientist posted this graph today. According to his research, the trends show that in 3 weeks time, virtually no new infections will be evident in NY.
